Predicting the Amount of Rain and its Relationship to the Area of Vegetation in the Center of Sidi Barrani, Egypt Using the Statistical Model (ARIMA).

 This study is concerned with analyzing the trend line and time series of rain during the period (1985-2023) in Markaz Sidi Barrani, to determine the amount of rain and its variation from year to year, and to predict its average until the year 2100. The study relied on the comprehensive geographical method, both inductive and deductive, and the statistical analysis technique using SPSS V. 25 program to apply Box-Jenkins (B.J.) methodology and Arima Model. It also relied on analyzing satellite images in GIS environment for the extraction of the vegetation index (NDVI) for the rainy seasons in (2013-2014), (2018-2019), (2022-2023), as well as determining the relationship between the amount of annual rainfall and the change in vegetation area. The result of application Arima model (2.1.0) showed that the amount of rain expected to fall on Markaz Sidi Barrani is taking an increasing trend, and that the correlation between the vegetation index, and the amount of rainfall is a strong direct relationship of 0.98 and the coefficient of determination reached R2 (0.97). The study determined the average amount of rain forecasted to fall for the years 2050 and 2100, which will reach (261.231 mm, 346.558 mm) Which confirms the suitability of the amount of rain forecasted to fall for agricultural planning development projects. The study culminated in producing a map to determine the suitable zones for agricultural reclamation. The study concluded with a set of recommendations that would facilitate ways of agricultural development and help the concerned parties in achieving sustainable development considering the amount of rain available and expected in the study area.